BOSTON — It is the beginning of a brand new season. Some folks see that as a possibility for boundless optimism.
These individuals are weirdos.
Whereas it is enjoyable to get carried away with all kinds of great prospects, the truth of soccer — and life, sadly — is that dangerous issues are just about at all times extra prone to occur.
Hm. Sort of a darkish technique to head right into a season.
However.
Because it pertains to the 2022 NFL season, there are clearly some slightly excessive expectations being positioned on gamers and groups everywhere in the league. A lot of that’s, after all, warranted. A few of it’s kind of misguided. Happily, a real visionary is right here to chop by all of the muck and discover the place some hype has grown slightly uncontrolled.
Ado: over. Time for a have a look at Overrated Watch coming into the season.
Buffalo Payments
Folks discuss this workforce’s playoff loss as if some act of God got here out of nowhere to destroy them. When actually … dangerous teaching in some crucial moments sunk them.
Their protection with 13 seconds left in regulation was atrocious. A fireable offense. Then in additional time they ended up having Matt Milano in man protection in opposition to Travis Kelce within the purple zone. It is so loopy that that did not work out for them. Having the NFL’s No. 1 protection does not imply a lot while you … go forward and do this.
Throw in the truth that they’re, nonetheless, the Buffalo Payments, they usually simply shouldn’t be Tremendous Bowl favorites. Curses might not be actual, however, properly, possibly they’re?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The factor that is at all times made Tom Brady unstoppably nice is that he is been psychotically obsessive about successful soccer video games. Maybe he’ll flip that swap again on when the season begins, however he is been extra focused on hawking underwear and NFTs this summer season than soccer.
There are different considerations. Talking of end-of-postseason defensive failures, Todd Bowles left a security one-on-one in opposition to Cooper Kupp to kick away an unbelievable comeback in opposition to the eventual Tremendous Bowl-champion Rams. Bowles is now the top coach, a place he is held twice earlier than, posting a 26-41 document. Ryan Jensen can also be out with no actual recognized return date, and Brady has by no means regarded worse in his profession than he has in years with a questionable inside offensive line.
Bucs at +700 (shortest odds within the NFC) looks like a play at Brady’s star energy greater than something.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
We all know Aaron Rodgers can do quite a bit with slightly … however we’re about to see that principle pushed to the intense. The Packers’ depth chart at receiver is … not good.
Identical to final yr, when Rodgers was the MVP (ought to have been Brady’s trophy however that is neither right here nor there), the Packers shall be adequate to be … adequate.
Los Angeles Rams
We clearly cannot doubt the Rams or Sean McVay or Matthew Stafford or Aaron Donald or anybody else on that workforce anymore. Championships have a method of creating that occur.
However can that workforce repeat? Get all the way in which out of right here.
Even one of the best championship groups from the previous twenty years did not repeat. The mighty ’06 Colts? They misplaced at dwelling of their lone playoff sport the following yr. The Legion of Growth Seahawks truly made it again to the Tremendous Bowl in 2014, however, ah, properly, you realize. The Patriots made it again to the Tremendous Bowl a yr after their 28-3 comeback, however they determined to let Nick Foles throw for six,000 yards in a single evening for some cause. Hey, and the Chiefs made it again to the Tremendous Bowl a yr after successful all of it, however they bought totally blown out by Brady and the Bucs within the least aggressive Tremendous Bowl because the Seahawks destroyed Peyton Manning’s Broncos.
Level is, no one will be positive what sort of teamwide psychological make-up is required to win back-to-back Tremendous Bowls. As a result of no one appears to have it.
Los Angeles Chargers
I truly just like the Chargers. Who would not? However folks discuss that them as in the event that they did not go 1-3 within the ultimate 4 weeks of final season whereas shedding the funniest Week 18 Sunday Evening Soccer sport of all time to finish the yr. They went 5-7 after their sizzling begin, when some folks had been waxing poetic concerning the genius of Brandon Staley.
Each season, there’s some workforce that missed the playoff a yr prior that goes on a deep playoff run. The Chargers appear to be the recent choose for that. That late-season loss to the Texans and the aforementioned Week 18 sport the place they managed to screw up a tie should warning in opposition to believing in that.
So there you could have it. All people is overrated. Take care of it.
That was enjoyable.
Let’s make picks.
On a private be aware, I am coming off my greatest season ever. I used to be 152-119-1 in opposition to the unfold within the common season and 8-5 within the playoffs. Fairly good! Let’s be higher!
(Dwelling workforce in CAPS; Wednesday traces)
LOS ANGELES (+2.5) over Buffalo
I will by no means dislike the defending champs as a house canine on a Thursday evening season opener. Even when the defending champs are going up in opposition to the consensus greatest workforce ever assembled.
New Orleans (-5.5) over ATLANTA
I agonized over this choose far more than I ought to have. There’s simply one thing concerning the rosy image of the Saints’ operation that is left me leery this summer season. However the Falcons usually are not … good … at soccer. Sadly.
CHICAGO (+7) over San Francisco
It is admittedly a little bit of a gentle touchdown for Trey Lance in his first begin as THE man at quarterback. He began twice final yr — taking part in poorly in a loss to Arizona whereas taking part in markedly higher in a win over the Texans — nevertheless it’s a special strain on the second-year QB completely proper now.
The 49ers ought to be adequate to win. However the factors aren’t a foul play right here.
CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Pittsburgh
I used to be tempted to place the Bengals on Overrated Watch, principally as a result of they’re the Bengals. Good issues do not final in Cincinnati. A 30-year playoff win drought ends and we’re supposed to only pencil them again into the AFC title sport? Appears a bit a lot.
However the actuality is it is unattainable to dislike the offseason that they had. Their offensive line was a nightmare; they mounted it. Their secondary was uncovered within the Tremendous Bowl; they used their prime picks on defensive backs.
Credit score the place it is due. The Bengals group seems to be performing at a excessive degree.
I’ve by no means mentioned that earlier than.
(The Steelers additionally have not gained a playoff sport since 2016. Will folks discuss that sooner or later?)
Philadelphia (-4) over DETROIT
Do not choose the Arduous Knocks workforce. They’re not so good as you assume. Simply because they had been enjoyable and likeable on the TV present doesn’t imply they are going to win soccer video games. Do not choose the Arduous Knocks workforce. They’re not so good as you assume. Simply because they had been enjoyable and likeable on the TV present doesn’t imply they are going to win soccer video games. Do not choose the Arduous Knocks workforce. They’re not so good as you assume.
Sorry. Needed to discuss to myself for a second there.
MIAMI (-3.5) over New England
There’s cause sufficient to love the Dolphins over the Patriots on paper. Add within the insane voodoo that Miami has over Invoice Belichick’s workforce for no matter cause (the Patriots are 2-7 in Miami since 2013) and there is not an excessive amount of to consider.
Certain, this sport options one of many largest disparities in head teaching wins within the historical past of the league … however at the least the coaches teaching offense in Miami have spent the majority of their careers teaching offense. That is an element proper there.
Baltimore (-7) over NEW YORK JETS
I used to be feeling good concerning the Jets. What a enjoyable draft that they had. Robert Saleh in yr two. Certainly Zach Wilson shall be higher.
Ah. However the Jetsiness comes for us all. Mekhi Becton bought damage. Zach Wilson bought damage. We’ve got a couple of weeks of Flacco coming. What a waste of time this shall be. Unhappy.
Jacksonville (+2.5) over WASHINGTON
HEY SPEAKING OF A WASTE OF TIME.
Cleveland (+1.5) over CAROLINA
Everybody has type of turned off the Cleveland Browns till Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. However what if, even with out Watson, the Browns are … superb?
They definitely could also be extra superb than the Carolina Panthers.
Indianapolis (-7) over HOUSTON
The Texans ranked thirty first in run protection final yr. Figures to be a difficulty this week. They have a brand new head coach and all of that however … Jonathan Taylor: Sort of good.
MINNESOTA (+1.5) over Inexperienced Bay
Vikings win.
(I wrote concerning the Packers already, you realize.)
TENNESSEE (-5.5) over New York Giants
I do fairly just like the Brian Daboll hiring. I feel. And never simply because it by the way ignited the Brian Flores lawsuit.
However altering a corporation that is been buried that deep, with a quarterback who greater than possible is less than the duty … that takes some time. This yr shall be thought-about a flush. We’ll consider beginning subsequent yr.
Kansas Metropolis (-6) over ARIZONA
I do know issues change. Gamers transfer. The Tyreek Hills depart. However as a common level of apply, I do not like to select in opposition to Patrick Mahomes when the unfold is in single digits. It is simply a great way to stay. A strong guideline. A relaxing fallback.
(I additionally can have bother shifting on from our final glimpse of the Arizona Cardinals. It was not good, people. Not good in any respect.)
Las Vegas (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I’ve no ensures that Josh McDaniels’ second go-round as a head coach shall be profitable … however I’ve to think about he is been game-planning his first sport again as a head coach for years. Literal years. Ought to be a enjoyable one for him and the Raiders in a “highway sport” that most likely will not really feel like one.
DALLAS (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
I do not love this choose, as a result of I typically like to select Tom Brady to win his soccer video games, particularly when Mike McCarthy is roaming the opposite sideline (with out the help of Aaron Rodgers saving him on the sphere).
However I additionally developed this principle that Tom Brady — whose sleep habits are, objectively, these of a weirdo — is dangerous at evening now.
Loopy? You inform me.
Final yr, in video games within the early Sunday window, Brady had a 109.7 passer ranking, with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Within the late afternoon window, he had a 112.0 ranking, with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. That is his candy spot, man.
However in evening video games? Brady performed 5 of them, and his passer ranking was 83.7. He threw eight touchdowns and 5 picks.
That was a continuation from 2020. That yr — his first in Tampa — his passer ranking was 118.3 within the early window, 105.4 within the late afternoon window, and 73.9 (!!!) at evening.
Tom Brady: Formally too outdated to be nice at evening. (He needed to drop off someplace, proper?)
Denver (-6.5) over SEATTLE
I at all times depart open the chance that I am unsuitable … however I do want the Seahawks had been a extra reliable opponent for this, the return of Russell Wilson to his homeland. It could be nice if we had some high-profile quarterback matchup, or a reincarnation of the Legion of Growth, or actually something exterior of crowd noise that will lend you to consider this sport shall be notably fascinating.
It is arduous to get a gauge on the precise ceiling of the Broncos this yr, nevertheless it does really feel like they will have a easy runway to get the aircraft off the bottom in Week 1.
You possibly can e mail Michael Hurley or discover him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
